For those of you that get your kicks playing in seasonal fantasy baseball leagues, you’ve undoubtedly heard the mantra that while a league cannot be won on draft day, it can be lost. I am here to not only echo those sentiments but also to provide some advice as to some players that you’re considering spending a top pick on that may or may not pan out in the long run. Be advised, that while a logical explanation is given for each player you may (or will) disagree, in which case we encourage you to reach out on Twitter, Facebook or the comment section below and give us your thoughts. Our advice is supposed to help you win your fantasy baseball 2012 championship, not mess with your head so if you feel we’re doing the latter let us know and we’ll see if we can help.
Onto the top 5 high risk/high reward picks for the 2012 MLB fantasy baseball season.
1. Miguel Cabrera – Detroit Tigers
Some might say that Miguel Cabrera, a.k.a. Miggy is the best hitter in baseball right now and who could blame them? Last season Miggy finished with 30 home runs, 197 hits, 48 doubles, 105 RBI’s, 111 Runs and 108 walks. Stats like that most assuredly put anyone who drafted Miggy into immediate contender status, and depending on what else you put around him you might’ve walked away with the crown.
So with awesome numbers in the prior season, what is their to be worried about in the 2012 season? The answer resides in the arrival of Detroits newest member, Prince Fielder. On one hand its conceivable that 2 of the best power hitters in baseball will combine for unrivaled statistics, and make the Tigers instant contenders for the World Series. On the other hand however, the arrival of the Prince means that Miggy will be moving to third base, and is being forced to shed a few pounds in the process. With that in mind the downside here should be fairly obvious and that is two fold. One, he’s playing a position that is more likely to induce injuries, and he’s going to lose some power with the weight loss which means that those former moon shots might turn into sky high outs.
In just about every league I’ve seen, Miggy is being taken top 3 (typically top 1-2) and while its warranted based on last seasons performance, we must not forget the negative impact this positional change and weight loss can/will have on him this season.
2. Josh Hamilton – Texas Rangers
Hamilton has been one of the best hitters in baseball for quite some time now, but he comes with added baggage that can and will affect his performance. The biggest red flag thats raised every year is the fact that he cannot find a way to stay on the field. In 2008 he managed to play 156 games, but since then he hasn’t cracked the 133 games barrier which is of course cause for concern. For comparisons sake, be advised that he only played 121 games last season, but still finished with stellar number; 94 RBI’s, 80 runs and 25 home runs.
If you’re accepting of the fact that he won’t be in your lineup for at least a portion of the season, I think the next hurdle is the recent alcohol relapse that he suffered several weeks ago. Before we talk about this lets make one thing clear, what Josh did is what a typical guy does every Friday and Saturday night, but given his history its a problem for him, and thus it needs to be a problem for fantasy owners. Its been said that the Rangers have handled the situation with him, and in all likelihood it won’t be a problem moving forward, but you shouldn’t draft him unless you’re aware of the possible downsides to doing so.
The rewards here are obvious in that even if he repeats last seasons performance he’ll still be amongst the best players on your team, but if he can stay healthy for 150+ games, he may very well end up being the best player on your roster. Furthermore, outfield is a stacked position and thus you shouldn’t rush to draft him in the first two rounds, but as a third round pick you can see a very high return on your investment.
3. Jose Reyes – Miami Marlins
The risk here is very similar to that of the risk involved with drafting Josh Hamilton and that is the fact that injuries have plagued Reyes for quite some time now. Despite being the NL batting average leader last season he only played in 126 games, and hasn’t sniffed the 150 game mark since 2008. His game is based on speed and quickness which means that minor bumps and bruises will negatively affect his output more so than they would a power hitter. The other downside is the fact that he’s with a new team which typically takes some time getting used to, especially on a team with so many dominant personalities (re. Hanley Ramirez, Logan Morrison)
With that in mind however lets make one thing clear, we’re nitpicking here. Reyes is going to have plenty of opportunities to swipe bags and score runs in what is shaping up to be a rather stacked Marlins offense this season. Furthermore, the short stop player pool is pretty thin up top which means that Reyes will go off the board in most drafts in the 1st or 2nd rounds so keep your eyes peeled for him and don’t be afraid to swoop in at the start of the 2nd round if he is still available.
As I alluded to earlier, the reward here is great if he plays the overwhelming majority of the games this season. In all likelihood Reyes is going to have a career season which is something that no prospective fantasy owner wants to miss out on.
4. Ryan Braun – Milwaukee Brewers
If you didn’t see this one coming, then ill go ahead and make the assumption that you don’t have ESPN in your home. Braun is set to miss the first 50 games of the season after testing positive for a banned substance, which means that he’ll take up a bench spot (no DL) for a third of the season before he is eligible to return. The next hurdle is that when he does return, how long is it going to take for him to regain his form? And finally how will be react to not having Prince Fielder hit behind him this season. Braun’s upcoming season is filled with questions and marred with controversy, which makes my recommendation to pass on him a bit more logical.
The type of league that you’re in will ultimately determine whether or not you should draft the former MVP, but for me the risk is higher than any possible reward. Yes he can play MVP baseball, but be advised that stats cannot measure a players mindset, nor can we expect how he’ll be received by the Brew Crew when he ultimately returns. Overall I am very hesitant to recommend that anyone draft him except for the latest of rounds wherein it would be certifiable to pass on him.
For all intents and purposes I would advise you to take a pass and let someone else deal with him this season.
5. Curtis Granderson – New York Yankees
The Grandy Man is coming off his best season in the majors, a season which also saw him finish as the 6th best fantasy player in all of baseball last season. The risk however is whether or not he simply broke out last season, or if luck played a major role in his production which included 41 home runs and 119 RBI’s.
In regards to the home runs, my inkling is that luck played a major factor and we can quantify it by looking at his fly ball to home run percentage, which was 20% last season as opposed to 14.5% the season before. In the wiffle ball park that is also known as Yankee Stadium many things are possible but it is my belief that we will not see a repeat performance here and more like 25 home runs is the likely settling point.
Elsewhere however his numbers shouldn’t suffer all that much. He’s batting in a stacked Yankees lineup so the Runs, SB’s and RBI’s are sure to come in left and right just as they did last season.
Thats our top five high risk/high reward players for the 2012 Fantasy Baseball Season and we want to get your thoughts. Who do you think poses the biggest risk to fantasy owners this season? Who’s got the most upside? Agree with our picks? Disagree? Let us know on Twitter, Facebook or the comment section below!
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